SMCSC Growth

Construction of new housing developments is underway in South Madison Community School District.  During the spring semester of 2022, the school district commissioned a demographic forecast to better understand how new homes would affect enrollment.  This demographic study can be viewed in its entirety here: 2022 Demographic Forecast For SMCSC. The district will compare enrollment trends with the demographic study as part of master facility planning. 

Summary of the demographic study:

1. The resident total fertility rate for the South Madison Community School Corporation over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.92 vs. the replacement level of 2.1)

2. Most in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44-year-old age groups.

3. The local 18-to-24-year-old population continues to leave the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.

4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10 years is the slowing of the increase in empty nest households, the relatively high number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in migration of young families.

5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next ten years will primarily be due to large cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with smaller cohorts leaving the system.

6. The elementary enrollment will slowly increase over the next 10 school years.

7. The median age of the district’s population will increase from 38.7 in 2020 to 40.6 in 2030.

8. Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude, and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.

9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 133 students, or 3.0%, between 2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment will increase by 152 students, or 3.3%, from 2026-27 to 2031-32.

Current Building Capacities and Enrollments: (Updated 9/3/24)
School	Enrollment	Capacity	Percentage
East Elementary School (K-6)	695	850	82%
Maple Ridge Elementary School (K-6)	868	900	96%
Pendleton Elementary School (PK-6)	1012	1200	84%
Pendleton Heights Middle School (7-8)	735	900	82%
Pendleton Heights High School (9-12)	1381	1600	86%
Total	4691	5450	86%