SMCSC Growth
Construction of new housing developments is underway in South Madison Community School District. During the fall semester of 2025, the school district commissioned a demographic forecast to better understand how new homes would affect enrollment. This demographic study can be viewed in its entirety here: 2025 Demographic Forecast For SMCSC. The district will compare enrollment trends with the demographic study as part of master facility planning.
Summary of the demographic study:
1. The South Madison Community School Corporation will experience steady population and enrollment growth over the next five years, primarily due to a growing population, an increase in housing stock and slowing of the decline in household size.
2. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 123 students, or 2.7%, from Academic Year 2025-26 through AY 2030-31. Total enrollment is expected to decrease by 10 students, or -0.2%, from AY2030-31 through AY2035-36.
3. The resident total fertility rate for the South Madison Community School Corporation over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level (1.81 vs. the replacement level of 2.1).
4. The dominant in-migration flow to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44year-old age groups. These tend to be young families with school age or pre-school age children, which helps increase the size of the district’s relatively small 0-4 age groups.
5. The largest out-migration flow occurs when the local 18-to-24-year-old population leaves the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups downsizing from their housing units.
6. The primary factors causing the South Madison Community School Corporation enrollment to increase over the next five years is the increase in new households the district, the relatively high number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of inmigration of young families.
7. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next ten years will primarily be due to large cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with smaller cohorts leaving the system.
8. The average size of the graduating 12th grade class in the South Madison Community School Corporation district will be 344 students from AY2026 to AY2035. This compares to 331 over the last five years.
9. The total elementary enrollment (K-6) will slowly decrease most of the next 10 school years.
10. The median age of the population in the South Madison Community School Corporation district will increase from 39.7 years in 2020 to 41.2 in 2035 confirming the continuation of the district’s aging trend.
11. The average household size in the South Madison Community School Corporation district decreased from 2.66 in 2010 to 2.60 in 2020 which helps explain why the district is experiencing smaller student yields from their housing units.
12. Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude, and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.
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Current Building Capacities and Enrollments: (Updated 2/2/26) |
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|
School |
Enrollment |
Capacity |
Percentage |
|
East Elementary School (K-6) |
682 |
850 |
80% |
|
Maple Ridge Elementary School (K-6) |
888 |
950 |
93% |
|
Pendleton Elementary School (PK-6) |
1058 |
1200 |
88% |
|
Pendleton Heights Middle School (7-8) |
683 |
900 |
76% |
|
Pendleton Heights High School (9-12) |
1371 |
1600 |
85% |
|
Total |
4682 |
5500 |
85% |