SMCSC Growth

Construction of new housing developments is underway in South Madison Community School District.  During the spring semester of 2022, the school district commissioned a demographic forecast to better understand how new homes would affect enrollment.  This demographic study can be viewed in its entirety here: 2022 Demographic Forecast For SMCSC. The district will compare enrollment trends with the demographic study as part of master facility planning. 


Summary of the demographic study:


1. The resident total fertility rate for the South Madison Community School

Corporation over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.92 vs. the

replacement level of 2.1)


2. Most in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44-year-

old age groups.


3. The local 18-to-24-year-old population continues to leave the district, going to

college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the

largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over

the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.


4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10

years is the slowing of the increase in empty nest households, the relatively high

number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in

migration of young families.


5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next ten years will primarily be due to

large cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with

smaller cohorts leaving the system.


6. The elementary enrollment will slowly increase over the next 10 school years.


7. The median age of the district’s population will increase from 38.7 in 2020 to 40.6 in

2030.


8. Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit

construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude, and price of existing home

sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of

population and enrollment change.


9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 133 students, or 3.0%, between

2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment will increase by 152 students, or 3.3%,

from 2026-27 to 2031-32.



Current Building Capacities and Enrollments: (Updated 9/1/22)

School

Enrollment

Capacity

Percentage

East Elementary School (K-6)

755

850

89%

Maple Ridge Elementary School (K-6)

779

900

87%

Pendleton Elementary School (PK-6)

935

1200

78%

Pendleton Heights Middle School (7-8)

724

900

80%

Pendleton Heights High School (9-12)

1379

1600

86%

Total

4478

5450

82%


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