Construction of new housing developments is underway in South Madison Community School District. During the spring semester of 2022, the school district commissioned a demographic forecast to better understand how new homes would affect enrollment. This demographic study can be viewed in its entirety here: 2022 Demographic Forecast For SMCSC. The district will compare enrollment trends with the demographic study as part of master facility planning.
Summary of the demographic study:
1. The resident total fertility rate for the South Madison Community School
Corporation over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.92 vs. the
replacement level of 2.1)
2. Most in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44-year-
old age groups.
3. The local 18-to-24-year-old population continues to leave the district, going to
college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the
largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over
the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.
4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10
years is the slowing of the increase in empty nest households, the relatively high
number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in
migration of young families.
5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next ten years will primarily be due to
large cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with
smaller cohorts leaving the system.
6. The elementary enrollment will slowly increase over the next 10 school years.
7. The median age of the district’s population will increase from 38.7 in 2020 to 40.6 in
2030.
8. Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit
construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude, and price of existing home
sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of
population and enrollment change.
9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 133 students, or 3.0%, between
2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment will increase by 152 students, or 3.3%,
from 2026-27 to 2031-32.
Current Building Capacities and Enrollments: (Updated 9/15/23)
|
School
|
Enrollment
|
Capacity
|
Percentage
|
East Elementary School (K-6)
|
733
|
850
|
86%
|
Maple Ridge Elementary School (K-6)
|
814
|
900
|
90%
|
Pendleton Elementary School (PK-6)
|
987
|
1200
|
82%
|
Pendleton Heights Middle School (7-8)
|
735
|
900
|
82%
|
Pendleton Heights High School (9-12)
|
1407
|
1600
|
88%
|
Total
|
4676
|
5450
|
86%
|